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Quick Oscar Predictions

OK, this is going to be really quick as I've hardly seen any of the nominated films and performances this year. To be honest, even though I'm compelled to watch every year, I'm not quite sure why anymore. As a kid, I loved watching to see my favorite stars and directors, and if my favorite movies weren't nominated, I was interested in watching to see what movies beat out my favorites, which made me want to see them to see why. The Oscars used to nurture my love for film.

These days, it's purely out of habit. The illusion has been shattered that the wins are purely based on merit; it's all popularity and who has already won, or not. And politics, like when a brilliantly made film about gay cowboys ends up getting trumped by a remedial and dangerously uninsightful but slickly made film about racism for Best Picture. Even though last year was the most interesting year for the Oscars I might have been alive to see - where almost all of my favorite films were multiple nominees - I fear that it was an exception to the new rule. People are calling this year the most boring Oscars ever. I couldn't give a shit about the red carpet, except for Kate Winslet, so since I'm not that interested in most of the movies nominated, it's safe to say I just don't give a shit about the Oscars this year.

But I'm still going to make predictions, because the thing about the Oscars is that you don't need to see the movies to know who's going to win.

Without further ado:

BEST ACTOR

• Richard Jenkins in "The Visitor" (Overture Films)
• Frank Langella in "Frost/Nixon" (Universal)
• Sean Penn in "Milk" (Focus Features)
• Brad Pitt in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
• Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler" (Fox Searchlight)

WINNER: Mickey Rourke. Sean Penn already has a win and, as great as Penn may have been in Milk (I don't know, I never saw it), Rourke is a comeback kid and he crushed it. If anyone is going to upset, it's Penn but Rourke, and the Academy, will benefit more from his win.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Josh Brolin in "Milk" (Focus Features)
• Robert Downey Jr. in "Tropic Thunder" (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Doubt" (Miramax)
• Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight" (Warner Bros.)
• Michael Shannon in "Revolutionary Road" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

WINNER: Heath Ledger, hands down. It's been over 30 years since a posthumous win (unless I'm forgetting someone, the last was Peter Finch for Network, one of my favorite performances in one of my favorite films) and even Dark Knight haters agreed that Ledger was amazing. His performance was the lynchpin for Christopher Nolan's mid-franchise re-imagining of the Batman mythology; if his Joker didn't work, the film wouldnt have resonated with as many people as it did. Ledger's Joker is up on the list of great screen villains of the last 20 years, alongside Hannibal Lecter and Anton Chigurh; those characters won Oscars for their actors, so it's got to be a lock.

Though I have to say that if Robert Downey Jr. upsets for his underrated turn in the underrated Tropic Thunder, I won't complain, but I think that his performance was so good it was TOO good and that you tend to forget at times that you're watching Robert Downey Jr. playing an Australian playing an African-American and just take the performance at face value... which is the supreme brilliance of it.


BEST ACTRESS

• Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married" (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Angelina Jolie in "Changeling" (Universal)
• Melissa Leo in "Frozen River" (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Meryl Streep in "Doubt" (Miramax)
• Kate Winslet in "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)

WINNER: Kate Winslet. Streep has two; Jolie has one. Hathaway hasn't paid her dues yet and who the hell is Melissa Leo and what the hell is Frozen River? It's Winslet's year.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Amy Adams in "Doubt" (Miramax)
• Penélope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" (The Weinstein Company)
• Viola Davis in "Doubt" (Miramax)
• Taraji P. Henson in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
• Marisa Tomei in "The Wrestler" (Fox Searchlight)

WINNER: Tough call. This is usually the wild card category. If so, then the award will go to Viola Davis for Doubt; she's a great actress who just doesn't get enough work and would benefit the most of the nominees. But Marisa Tomei, who was the wild card winner back in 1992, was a perfect complement to Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler. And then, Penelope Cruz was the only reason to sit through Vicky Cristina Barcelona. But when all is said and done, my money is on Amy Adams to win. She's been nominated once before and she's been gearing up to be America's Sweetheart for a while now. I think it's her turn.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

• "Bolt" (Walt Disney)

  Chris Williams and Byron Howard

• "Kung Fu Panda" (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount)

  John Stevenson and Mark Osborne

• "WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

  Andrew Stanton

WINNER: Nobody likes a smartass and Pixar has three of these things, four if you count John Lasseter bringing Hayao Miyazaki's Spirited Away to the US. WALL-E is probably my favorite animated feature of all time, certainly one of the most ambitious kids' films of all time... or can it even be counted as a kids' film? This might be the reason it gets screwed. Kung Fu Panda, a visually stunning but poorly plotted and edited movie might squeak by on the fact that A) it's Dreamworks' best looking animated feature to date; and B) they won't have to give another one to Pixar. Unfortunately, this is the wrong battle to fight at the wrong time and will go down as one of Oscar's big blunders.


BEST DIRECTOR

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

  David Fincher

• "Frost/Nixon" (Universal)

  Ron Howard

• "Milk" (Focus Features)

  Gus Van Sant

• "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)

  Stephen Daldry

• "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

  Danny Boyle

WINNER: Here's where it gets tricky. My head tells me that Slumdog Millionaire is going to sweep but my gut has always told me that for Director and Picture, Slumdog and Benjamin Button will split. I can't tell who's getting what, though. I'm inclined to say that Danny Boyle will win Best Director for Slumdog and Button will win Best Picture, although it could easily be the other way around, as Fincher's Zodiac was inexplicably shut out of the Oscars in 2007.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• "Frozen River" (Sony Pictures Classics)

  Written by Courtney Hunt

• "Happy-Go-Lucky" (Miramax)

  Written by Mike Leigh

• "In Bruges" (Focus Features)

  Written by Martin McDonagh

• "Milk" (Focus Features)

  Written by Dustin Lance Black

• "WALL-E" (Walt Disney)

  Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

WINNER: No one's seen Frozen River. Mike Leigh is forever doomed to be an Oscar bridesmaid and if his lead actress didn't even get a nomination, I can't see him winning this. And I can't see the Academy giving a screenplay Oscar to an animated film, even one as great as WALL-E. That leaves In Bruges and Milk. Odds on favorite is Milk, but I think In Bruges will pull it out. It's the most cleverly funny crime underworld script since Pulp Fiction and really, more people need to see it.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.)

  Screenplay by Eric Roth Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord

• "Doubt" (Miramax)

  Written by John Patrick Shanley

• "Frost/Nixon" (Universal)

  Screenplay by Peter Morgan

• "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company)

  Screenplay by David Hare

• "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight)

  Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

WINNER: Benjamin Button is structured almost identically to Forrest Gump, same writer too, so that's out. Doubt and Frost/Nixon were based on plays written by the screenwriters and so are probably too close to the source material. The Reader is the odd man out of this year's Oscars, mainly getting play because of Winslet and producers Harvey Weinstein and the late Sydney Pollack and Anthony Minghella. So my money's on Slumdog. It's a pretty unassailable script.


BEST PICTURE

• "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" (Paramount and Warner Bros.) A Kennedy/Marshall Production

  Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Ceán Chaffin, Producers

• "Frost/Nixon" (Universal) A Universal Pictures, Imagine Entertainment and Working Title Production

  Brian Grazer, Ron Howard and Eric Fellner, Producers

• "Milk" (Focus Features) A Groundswell and Jinks/Cohen Company Production

  Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen, Producers

• "The Reader" (The Weinstein Company) A Mirage Enterprises and Neunte Babelsberg Film GmbH Production

  Nominees to be determined

• "Slumdog Millionaire" (Fox Searchlight) A Celador Films Production

  Christian Colson, Producer

WINNER: As I said in the Director category, I think Slumdog and Button might end up splitting. But then again, maybe everyone else had the same delayed reaction to Benjamin Button that I did: the more I think about it, the less impressive it becomes. It's not a bad film, just not worth 13 nominations. I don't think it's the best work of anyone involved and it's only getting so much buzz because it "looks" like an Oscar film; it's long, it's a tear-jerker, it's got big stars and a story that spans the world. But when you put something like Slumdog Millionaire up against Button does it look like a relic of a time long passed. Slumdog isn't my favorite film of the year but it's in the top 5; it isn't my favorite Danny Boyle film but it's in his top 5. But it's a well-told story, a real crowd-pleaser - more in line with Gump than Benjamin Button in a way - and if it manages to get my mom to say it's the best movie she's ever seen without it starring Hugh Jackman or Will Smith, then that says something.

So there you go. Predictions. If anyone is interested, I may or may not be live-tweeting the Oscars. Follow me if you're interested or just come back here tonight. Again, I'm not promising anything (even though I did make it one of my resolutions) especially since my attempt last year fell kind of flat but I'll try and I'll try to make it interesting.